Binary Order book Science Closes in about 1 month

Will the October 2026 mean sunspot number be above 83?

Resolves Yes if the monthly mean total sunspot number for October 2026 published by SILSO (the Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations service of the Royal Observatory of Belgium) at https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/datafiles is strictly greater than 83.0 when first published on or about 1 November 2026. 83.0 or lower resolves No. Later revisions are ignored. Fallback: the same figure as republished by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. If no October figure has been published by 30 November 2026, the market is voided and every stake refunded.

House position: the operator set this market up and may take a side in it. Any operator stake is placed as The Sheriff and is real money on the same terms as yours - it trades at the book's own prices, pays the same fees, and wins or loses at settlement by the rules above like every other position.

Closes 31 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC Resolves 03 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC Verify resolution →

Place an order

Outcome iThe result you are trading on, e.g. YES or NO. Tap to pick a side.

Currency iThe wallet currency you place and settle this order in. Side iBuy if you think this outcome will happen. Sell to take the other side or to close shares you already hold. Price per share iBetween 0.01 and 0.99. This is the implied probability - 0.60 means a 60% chance. You pay this amount for each share. Number of shares iHow many shares to trade. Each winning share pays out 1.00 when the market resolves.

The most you can lose on a buy is the price you pay per share. A winning share is worth 1.00.

How this market pays

How this market pays. You buy shares in an outcome at a price between 0 and 1, and you can place a sell order at any time while the market is open.

It fills when a buyer takes it. When the result is confirmed, every share of the winning outcome pays 1 unit of the currency it was bought in, and every share of a losing outcome pays nothing.

You pay a fee only when your order crosses the spread: 1.5% of the value it trades. Resting an order in the book is free.

If the market is VOIDED we unwind every position: you get back the money still held against your orders, and we refund the fees you paid on this market. After we confirm the result we hold winnings pending for 24 hours, the dispute window.

When it closes we credit them to your balance.

How prediction markets work · Full prediction market terms · Adjudication log

Chance over time iHow the market-implied chance of each outcome has moved. At 50%, buyers are pricing it as a coin flip.

Your positions iShares you hold in this market, your average entry price and profit/loss so far. Once the market settles, each row shows whether it won or lost and its final P/L before fees.

Your open orders iLimit orders still waiting to trade. We hold the stake until they fill or you cancel.

Books by currency iEach currency is its own order book. You can trade the books your site offers; the rest are shown so you can see the whole market.

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